Table 2. The five best-fit models and the most general model (in bold) representing apparent survival (Φ), recapture (p) and movement (Ψ: Gulf only) probabilities for Piping Plovers nesting in southern Nova Scotia 1999 to 2002, and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence 1998–2002, as estimated with capture-recapture models in program MARK (multi-state models for the Gulf). Each model is shown with its deviance, number of parameters, difference in QAICc value from the best model (ΔQAICc) and relative QAICc weight (ωQAICc), using overdispersion values of South NS c-hat = 1.038 and Gulf c-hat = 1.058. Subscripts following the parameter indicate the variation: constant (.), time-variant (t), region-variant (r, where all regions differ, Gulf only), age-variant (a2, where juveniles take on adult rates after their first year), age-time interaction (a2*t), age-region interaction (a2*r), an additive age and time effect (a2+t), or regionally grouped (e.g., AC,NF:others indicates that the Acadian peninsula and Newfoundland were constrained to be equal, whereas Nova Scotia/New Brunswick, PEI, and Quebec were all constrained to be equal to one another but different from Acadia and Newfoundland). Differential variation between adults and juveniles is indicated by subscripts A and J.      Model # Parameters Deviance ΔQAICc ωQAICc South NS Φa2 pt 6 38.33 0.00 0.307 Φa2 pa2+t 7 37.84 1.64 0.135 Φa2 pAtJ. 7 38.25 2.04 0.110 Φa2+t pt 8 36.26 2.26 0.099 Φa2 p. 3 47.33 2.42 0.092 Φa2*t pa2*t 14 33.96 13.26 <0.001   Gulf Φa2*t pa2*(AC,NF:others) Ψa2*r 54 254.46 0.00 0.982 Φa2*t pa2*r Ψa2*r 60 249.45 9.14 0.010 Φa2 pa2*(AC,NF:others) Ψa2*r 46 282.73 9.79 0.007 Φa2 pa2*r Ψa2*r 52 276.14 17.01 <0.001 Φa2*t pa2 Ψa2*r 52 277.76 18.64 <0.001 Φa2*t*r pa2*t*r Ψa2*r 134 171.38 129.10 <0.001