Table 4. Sampling effort (number of variable circular plot (VCP) stations) required for three levels of statistical confidence of extinction (i.e., desired posterior probabilities) (V) across a range of prior probabilities of extinction (Q) for two prior probability distributions.


Poisson prior
Q = 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
V = 0.90: 9,188 8,998 8,786 8,522 8,165 7,643 6,785 5,083
0.95: 9,414 9,322 9,218 9,090 8,916 8,662 8,244 7,416 4,942
0.99: 9,587 9,568 9,548 9,523 9,489 9,439 9,357 9,195 8,710
Geometric prior
Q = 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
V = 0.90: 8,559 8,425 8,253 8,024 7,703 7,222 6,419 4,815
0.95: 9,094 9,027 8,941 8,826 8,666 8,425 8,024 7,222 4,815
0.99: 9,522 9,508 9,491 9,468 9,436 9,388 9,308 9,147 8,666