Fig. 5. Predicted rates of extinction while varying the initial number of adults in a stage-based, discrete, stochastic population viability analysis for large-bodied woodpeckers. Increasing the initial number of adults resulted in an extinction rate ≤ 0.05, noted with gray line, when demographic rates were intermediate while their variances decreased (A), when an Allee effect was present while demographic rates and their variances were intermediate (B), but not when demographic rates varied while their variances were intermediate (C). Whiskers represent 95% confidence limits (n = 200).