Table 3. Summary of model selection results for models of explaining mean temperature in Fork-tailed Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma furcata) nests at Kasatochi Island, Alaska. Models are listed in order of best fit in each year based on Akaike’s information criterion for small sample sizes (AICc). Except for the null model, only models with ΔAICc < 2.0 are shown. SSE is the sum of squared error, k is the number of parameters in the model, ΔAICc is the difference in AICc value between each model and the top model, wi is the Akaike weight, and R2 is the proportion of the total variation in success explained by the model.


Year Model† SSE k AICc ΔAICc wi R2
2005 ROCK 14.69 2 55.20 0.00 0.25 0.535
ROCK+VEGC 14.45 3 55.46 0.26 0.22 0.551
ROCK+ANGV+VEGC 13.48 4 56.68 1.48 0.12 0.581
ROCK+SLP 14.65 3 56.97 1.77 0.10 0.544
ROCK+SLP+VEGC 14.43 4 57.20 2.00 0.09 0.552
Null 32.52 1 160.21 105.01 0.00 0.000
2006 ROCK+SLP 27.88 3 112.28 0.00 0.31 0.228
ROCK 28.85 2 113.19 0.91 0.64 0.166
ROCK+SLP+VEGC 27.86 4 113.64 1.36 0.16 0.229
ROCK+ANGV+SLP 27.84 4 114.08 1.80 0.12 0.222
Null 45.67 1 192.00 79.72 0.00 0.000

†ANGV: vertical nest angle; ROCK: relative amount of rock that composed each nest; SLP: slope; VEGC: vegetation cover